Breaking the Ice in Northeast Asia: President Lee’s Brazen Bet on the Arctic (38 North)
3 Aug 2026
This article—whose authors have proposed “(f)urther development of this polar region may bring Asia and Europe significantly closer, enhancing multipolarity and also global stability”—suggests that rapprochement with Russia is in South Korea’s interests and that European concerns with such a relationship can be balanced through defence industry deals—pointing to South Korea’s many defence contracts with Poland.
I would argue that this ignore a shift in global security consciousness—one that may have doomed Hanhwa Ocean’s bid on Canada’s submarine program. This policy proposal presupposes that economics will be the fundamental factor in Russian and European decision-making. I would argue this is no longer the case, and that while Poland, Romania, Hungary, and many other NATO countries will continue to contract with South Korea as a reliable purveyor of quality defence hardware, once Japan is fully in the game, its animosity toward China—if not Russia—will give it an advantage in arms deals in Southeast Asia. If Japan does not seek rapprochement with Russia in the same way as South Korea, it will become the Asian partner of choice for richer NATO countries.
Were I advising Seoul, I would tell them to move forward with economic plans, but that it simply cannot work towards rapprochement with Russia while Moscow continues its invasion of Ukraine. Further, even should Russia be re-integrated following a peace, that very invasion should tell Seoul everything it needs to know about the global security paradigm—the economy is key for South Korea, but is not the key deciding factor for other nations—like China, Russia, and Iran, let alone North Korea. Defence partners will expect a strong response from South Korea to actions that damage international security. Many countries—including those in NATO—will continue to look to South Korea for defence products even if Seoul remains on the fence, but these will always be transactional relationships. If South Korea wants to have more weight as a middle power, it will need to do more.
submitted by /u/kojaeng_gi
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