South Korea’s liberal politician Lee Jae-myung was ahead in a snap presidential election on Tuesday, an exit poll showed, as Asia’s fourth-largest economy is sharply slowing down on unpredictable protectionist moves by the US and a deepening political divide caused by a shock martial law imposed by ousted former leader Yoon Suk Yeol.
Lee, the Democratic Party’s candidate, won 51.7% of votes, while his conservative rival Kim Moon-soo secured 39.3%, the exit poll conducted by the country’s three television networks showed shortly after the election.
The frontrunner was favored to win, according to polls announced a week before the election, beating Kim by 14 percentage points with 49% public support in a Gallup Korea survey, although the nominee for the People Power Party narrowed an even wider gap at the beginning of the campaign on May 12.
The snap election was called as Yoon was removed from office by the country’s Constitutional Court in April after being impeached by lawmakers following his short-lived declaration of martial law last December. Yoon had belonged to the People Power Party.
“Yoon’s martial law created a national consensus that the destruction of the constitutional order was unacceptable,” said Choi Chang-ryeol, a professor at Yong In University. “Lee drew support from young people and centrists in the Seoul metropolitan area by emphasizing democracy.”
Lee is scheduled to take office on Wednesday without the usual, two-month transition to serve a full, five-year term.
CHILD LABORER TO BECOME PRESIDENT
The 61-year-old politician, who lost to Yoon in 2022 by the closest-ever margin recorded in South Korea’s presidential elections, was a political outsider.
Born to an impoverished farming family, Lee had to quit school and work as a child laborer at factories where he suffered injuries that left him with an arm disability.
He later passed the country’s highly exhaustive bar exam and became a human rights lawyer.
Lee previously served as the governor of Gyeonggi Province, the most populous region in South Korea, and as the mayor of Seongnam, which includes Pangyo — often referred to as South Korea’s Silicon Valley.
He became popular after fiery speeches critical of conservative President Park Geun-hye, who was also impeached, over a 2016-17 corruption scandal that went viral.
In January 2024, Lee was stabbed in the neck by a man who had written a manifesto saying he wanted to ensure Lee never became president.
TO SAVE ECONOMY
Lee is set to take office as the South Korean economy is faltering on weakening domestic demand and rising external headwinds.
Lee emphasized balancing economic growth and public welfare, promoting the slogan “The Era of KOSPI 5,000.” While other candidates set only targets for the country’s main stock index, Lee provided details such as measures to protect minority shareholders to achieve the goal.
“His image as someone focused on livelihoods drew support from working-class citizens,” said Shin Yul, a political science professor at Myongji University.
The Democratic Party has pledged to gradually increase budgets for research and development and invest heavily in artificial intelligence if Lee wins, starting with this year’s extra spending.
The party also plans to make defense one of the country’s key industries, provide vouchers to help local businesses and strengthen the country’s soft power by ramping up support for the content industry.
TO DEAL WITH TRUMP’S UNPREDICTABLE PROTECTIONISM
Lee, the advocate for pragmatic diplomacy, is expected to face immediate challenges due to US President Donald Trump’s unpredictable protectionist trade policy and conflict between the US and China, South Korea’s two largest overseas markets.
Washington is pressuring Seoul to abandon its longstanding strategy to focus security with the US and economy with China and instead choose one of them. The Trump administration demands South Korea distance itself from China, Russia, and other countries considered threats to the global free trade system.
The US is predicted to further pressure on South Korea as Lee takes office. Seoul has asked Washington to consider South Korea’s political situation to avoid sensitive matters on tariffs.
The Trump administration wants countries to provide their best offer on trade negotiations by Wednesday as officials seek to accelerate talks with multiple partners ahead of a self-imposed deadline of July 8 in just five weeks, Reuters reported.
South Korean industries are expected to be hit hard if the new government fails to make a deal by the deadline, experts said.
The Lee administration is likely to diversify export markets to reduce economic dependence on the US and China in the medium to long term.
Lee repeatedly emphasized the importance of exploring emerging markets in such as Latin America, the Middle East and Africa.
FOREIGN POLICY
Lee plans to ease tensions with North Korea by first restoring a military hotline and a military agreement ditched by Pyongyang amid rising animosity in 2023.
He is also expected to maintain the goal of denuclearization on the Korean peninsula and the transfer of wartime operational control from the US.
South Korea is unlikely to avoid participation in U.S.-led multilateral security frameworks, diplomatic sources said.
Lee needs to attend the upcoming North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) Summit on June 24 to restore South Korea’s presence in multilateral diplomacy, which had lapsed under martial law, the sources said.
Failure to engage in discussions at the summit — particularly regarding responses to Russia-China security cooperation — could harm South Korea’s relationship with NATO member countries, especially the US, the sources added.
NATO has invited leaders from four Indo-Pacific countries, including South Korea, Japan, Australia, and New Zealand, in a bid to counter Chinese authoritarianism since 2022.
By Jongwoo Cheon, Hyung-Kyu Kim, Hyun-Il Lee, Dae-Hun Kim, Hyung-Chang Choi and Jae-Young Han
jwcheon@hankyung.com
Jongwoo Cheon edited this article.
