I’m hoping this post is focused on the chances of winning and not on the other problems and merits of the new category. Since I’m a Stay, I’m viewing it from the perspective of whether Stray Kids has a higher or lower chance of winning when the new category was added.
I think the chances of winning the big general categories is about the same. Eligibility for these awards have not changed. So, In theory, groups have the same chance of winning. But, in practice, voters may be less likely to vote for kpop since it got its own category this year. On the other hand, the winners of all the genre categories typically get more serious attention than others because they have already proven themselves worthy in their genre. So in my view, it’s probably a wash and the chances of winning the general categories has not changed.
However, under the new categorization, I think the chances of winning best Pop album have significantly decreased. I’m not even sure kpop albums with significant use of an Asian language are still eligible for this award. Those albums may be considered to be in the Asian Pop genre. And the Asian Pop genre offers no award for best album. I hope the Grammys renames the pop album category as the pop and Asian pop album category to make it clear that Asian Pop albums are eligible.
The issue that really twists my mind is whether someone like Stray Kids would have a better chance of winning a Grammy in 1) best group or duet performance in the Pop category where they wouldnt have to compete with any solo performers like Taylor Swift, Billie Eilish, the Weekend, Jenny, Lisa, JHope, or Jungkook or 2) the Asian Pop category where they don’t have to compete against any Western pop stars, but do have to compete against all the solo Asian pop stars like Jenny, Jungkook, Lisa, and IU. I’m not sure either category is obviously less competitive than the other and it depends on whether the group of individual Asian pop stars or the group of western groups and duets have put on better performances this year. I feel if the Grammys were trying to increase the chances of Asian pop stars winning Grammys, they should have divided the Asian performance award into solo Asian Pop performance and Asian Pop Performance by a Duet or Group so that Asian Pop groups aren’t facing even greater competition than they did last year.
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