Sm has been creating and soft launching their new boy group via SMTR25 for about two years now and they’re finally in the debut preparations period. Seems like SM will be quite ambitious with this group. Would love to hear everyone’s thoughts and predictions.
The following are mine:
– large group 8-11 members, I’m leaning towards 9 with 3 foreign members
– conceptually like exo/superm, will join the kwangya lore with a time travel/alternate universe type concept, darker theme to contrast riize and wish
– debut Nov-Dec to make a splash during year end performances and aim to sweep next year’s rookie awards
– Asia will be their primary target (large chinese predebut fandom, their marketing have all been focused in Asia with hardly any in the west)
– hamin, songha, hanbi, hyunjun, Daniel and Justin are locked in (pretty much the avengers of smtr25)
– haruta 90% locked in (isn’t nearly as popular as the other 6 but good odds since the company packages him in with the main 6. He has a unique presence in the group + Japanese market value)
– Charlie locked in (he filmed wow 2 in May and it’s still not released, would be awkward to release it later on if they didn’t plan on debuting him. Main English speaker + stan attractor personality + Thai market + good vocal potential)
– Nicholas 50/50 (he would have been a lock before he announced that he wanted to be actor back in Sep 2025 of the variety filming. Coincides with his lessened screen time. He said he would be around until the end of the fan meetings in May 2026 but was spotted still going to SM recently so unsure where he stands)
– jaewon 65% (closest to a classic sm main vocal but he hardly gets seen in official photos or screen time and stands by the sidelines so depends on whether his vocal color is important for the group’s songs. Hilarious and has good chemistry with the core group)
– seongwook or another hidden korean trainee will be added 50/50 (seongwook has been seen near the core trainees more often these days but idk what his specialty is. If sm’s has hidden trainees they’ll likely be a main vocal as there’s enough rappers and dancers in the current lineup)
– sadaharu and woolin saved for future group (lack experience and Woolin has been tasked with getting photographed by fans walking around the sm building daily as if it’s a kpi to keep fans engaged with the smtr25 brand while other trainees have gone into seclusion so I highly doubt he’s included)
– Tata and kachin will go to the Thai group (they received early exposure but get highlighted more in Thai content and ads. Charlie is also a better fit for the global market for a flagship group)
– kassho chances are low (I think he will only debut if the group is >9 members as 3 Japanese members in a group is a lot and skills wise I don’t think he stands out tbh. I am worried for him as it seems like the Japanese localized group plan has been scrapped based on the latest ppt slides from sm and he has not been sighted post-fan meetings. I really like him with the 06 line)
Note: I’ve been following along the smtr25 project since Jan 2026 so I do like every member but I’m trying to be objective about their debut chances so please don’t take it as I’m hating on certain members. Let’s have a friendly discussion.
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