Korea posts highest Q1 GDP growth among major economies, beating China and Indonesia

Korea posts highest Q1 GDP growth among major economies, beating China and Indonesia

Korea’s Q1 2026 real GDP growth came in at 1.694%, the highest among the 22 countries that have released preliminary figures so far, according to Bank of Korea data released today (May 12).

Indonesia (1.367%) and China (1.3%) came in second and third. Those three were the only countries to post growth above 1% for the quarter.

The rest: Finland (0.861%), Hungary (0.805%), Spain (0.614%), Estonia (0.581%), US (0.494%), Canada (0.4%), Germany (0.334%), Costa Rica (0.279%), Belgium (0.2%), Austria (0.197%), Italy (0.165%), Czechia (0.153%), Netherlands (0.051%), Portugal (0.022%). France contracted by 0.005%, while Sweden (-0.21%), Lithuania (-0.444%), Mexico (-0.8%), and Ireland (-2.014%) all posted negative growth.

This is a sharp rebound. In Q4 2024, Korea grew -0.161% and ranked 38th out of 41 countries in BOK’s dataset. If Korea holds the top spot once the remaining countries report, it’ll be the first time Korea has led the quarterly rankings since Q1 2010 (2.343%), when post-financial-crisis trade recovery was driving Korean exports.

The Q1 surprise was again driven by exports, particularly semiconductors and IT. Exports jumped 5.1%, with net exports contributing 1.1 percentage points to GDP growth. Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix posted earnings of 57.2 trillion won and 37.6 trillion won respectively for the quarter, both well into “earnings surprise” territory.

The actual number nearly doubled the BOK’s February forecast of 0.9%. Domestic and international institutions are now revising their full-year forecasts upward. The Korea Institute of Finance raised its 2026 forecast from 2.1% to 2.8% yesterday. BOK releases updated projections on May 28.

Caveat: Q2 will probably look much worse. Quarterly growth is calculated against the previous quarter, so a strong Q1 usually means a base-effect drag on Q2. The government already flagged this on April 23, saying Q2 would likely see “an unavoidable correction” due to the Q1 base effect and the intensifying impact of the Middle East war. For reference, Q1 2024 also came in unexpectedly hot at 1.174%, then Q2 2024 dropped to -0.028%.

https://preview.redd.it/f8q8grq8wl0h1.png?width=1152&format=png&auto=webp&s=d759c02fc14938fc3abc0aa26372569b19fc196e

https://preview.redd.it/rcp9irz8wl0h1.png?width=621&format=png&auto=webp&s=1870fb28499f4bf35eae73a932dfc124bb306963

Source (Yonhap, Korean)

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