i know the title is a bit inflammatory, please read before getting defensive lol. i’ve been a big supporter of SM groups since 2011 when i discovered SHINee, i stanned primarily mostly their groups until around when NCT debuted (as the concept was never my thing). i like aespa and their music a lot, i’m mostly speaking from experience as a former sm fan who’s watched their groups come and go.
i was looking through my own comment history and saw i responded to a post months ago, predicting that sm would give up on aespa once H2H took off or a member got into a scandal, in the same way RV was supported right up until irene’s scandal slowed them down and then the explosion of aespa’s “next level” the following year put the nail in the coffin for their consistent, proper funded promotion. i don’t think i need to detail what aespa’s recent scandal is lol, but we can all see karina catching criticism and derision from both korean and international fans, so my point is: this next comeback Has to be a smash hit that is enough to outweigh that, or i cannot imagine sm investing much more time and money in them going forward. if there are songs and concepts planned and written to be theirs now, they will be poached for H2H in the same way certain RV title tracks seemed clearly fx coded.
fx and rv did not have long, drawn out shelf-lives as groups. sm doesn’t allow it with their girl groups, for whatever reason. they’re not great with their boy groups either, as we can see with how there are already talks of their new bg when RIIZE has already kicked their scandal-member out, but they’re Terrible about it with ggs. if Dirty Work isn’t topping the charts and spinning out lots of tiktoks and engagement, i can’t see them doing much but pulling all their focus into H2H and the upcoming new bg. i don’t say this with glee to see it, don’t get me wrong; i think aespa fills a really unique niche within kpop but unfortunately i have had hope for sm too many times and been disappointed just as many times, i can’t expect anything different.
i guess the point of this post is to say that if you really like aespa, or you’re a MY and you want them to keep releasing like they are now, y’all as a fandom really gotta step up and show numbers this time especially. if the public doesn’t like this one that much, it might be the end of aespa’s golden years and the start of their limp into sm’s dungeon.
edit: i just wanted to clarify! i do not think aespa will drop off the face of the earth after this LOL. sm doesn’t do that: they just give wayyyy less money to older groups. as another commenter pointed out, there aren’t even any bsides for this comeback, it’s just a single. when i say “last big comeback” i mean in terms of the quality of MV, quantity and quality of promotion, promotion period length, extra content, etc… right now aespa is SM’s big moneymaker. if H2H has a successful first comeback, i believe they’re going to pour 95% of their eggs in that basket and let aespa and RIIZE and all their other senior groups fight over the shells and scraps. they’ll still make mvs and songs, there’s just going to be a noticeable difference in investment into them as an IP.
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