South Korea’s fertility rate bounced back last year for the first time in nearly a decade after marriages surged, raising hope for a turnaround in the country’s demographic crisis.
Korea’s total fertility rate, the average number of children per woman during her reproductive years, stood at 0.75 in 2024, which is higher than the prior year’s 0.72.
In 2023, the country reported its and the world’s new record low fertility rate after years of freefalling.
The latest figure beat the previous projections of 0.68 and 0.74 made in February and December last year, respectively.
With the latest rebound, Asia’s fourth-largest economy snapped the losing streak in birthrates for the previous nine straight years.
Korea’s new births in 2024 hit 238,300, up 3.6% from 2023. The number of first-born and second-born babies added 5.6% and 2.1%, respectively, to 146,100 and 75,900 over the same period.
“This is the first time in nine years to see a gain across the board from births to fertility rates to first- and second-born children,” said Statistics Korea, citing a rise in marriages after the end of the COVID-19 pandemic and increased female population in their 30s as main drivers.
MORE PEOPLE GET MARRIED
Korea’s marriages, a leading indicator of new births, jumped 14.9% to about 220,000 couples in 2024, marking the biggest spike since the data started being released in 1970.
The country’s marriages turned up for the first time in 11 years in 2023 with a 1.0% increase thanks to a post-pandemic boost.
Joo Hyung-hwan, the vice chairman of the Presidential Committee on Ageing Society and Population Policy, forecast the country’s fertility rate will grow to 0.79 in 2025 with the number of births expected to top 250,000 this year thanks to more married couples.
The committee is Korea’s government body set up to address the country’s population issues, such as the rapidly aging population and declining birth rate, with proper policies.
The vice chairman urged more changes in policies and social conditions to encourage women in their 30s to tie the knot and have children.
“Changes we have made so far – such as policies to make marriage desirable and an increase in monthly pay for child care leave – have paid off somewhat,” said Joo, vowing that the committee will come up with measures to encourage more fathers to take paternity leave.
TURNING POINT?
A change in Korea’s population pyramid was one of the reasons for the rise in the country’s birthrate, according to the statistics office.
People born between 1991 and 1995, when the number of Korea’s newborn babies exceeded 700,000 annually, are now in their 30s, resulting in a rise in newborn babies.
Last year, the proportion of the country’s advanced maternal age pregnancy also edged down 0.4 percentage point on-year to 35.9%. Advanced maternal age is a medical term to describe women who are over age 35 during pregnancy.
It was the first time the share shrank since 1987, and the fall was owed to the increase in the number of mothers in their early 30s in the country, according to the statistics office.
But the number of people in their 20s is smaller than those in their 30s because annual new births between 1996 and 2000 dipped below 700,000.
Since then, the country’s annual births had declined sharply to about 400,000 in 2002 and to the 200,000 level now.
“Considering that the population of people in their 20s is smaller than that in their 30s, the number of childbirths can contract again,” said Park Hyun-jeong, an official from Statistics Korea.
This is why many experts believe the Korean government is given only a few years left maybe until 2031 to turn the tide in the country’s demographic crisis.
Asia’s No. 4 economy has mustered measures to improve birthrate with policies to encourage marriage and child-rearing, including financial benefits for newlyweds and expanded childcare assistance.
Scholars and experts welcomed the latest bump in the fertility rate but remained cautious about whether the reversal would be a trend forward.
It is important for the government to carefully evaluate the various support measures and come up with better policies based on the assessment, said experts.
Despite the uptick, South Korea’s fertility rate is still the world’s lowest.
The country’s population, which hit a peak of 51.83 million in 2020, is expected to shrink to 36.22 million by 2072, according to the latest projection by the statistics agency.
By Jeong Min Nam and Ri-Ahn Kim
peux@hankyung.com
Sookyung Seo edited this article.
