Global security outlook for 2026: Back to the jungle?

This year has dawned with a thunderbolt-like U.S. operation to capture Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro in Caracas. Its aftershocks are still being felt. U.S President Donald Trump is ramping up pressure not only against the leaders of states like Cuba and Iran, but also toward NATO allies. His doctrine makes many leaders across the world nervous about its ramifications, anguishing over their own safety. Trump is fixated on setting a new tone for U.S. foreign policy, creating something fundamentally different from the post-World War II liberal international order. He is trying to turn to an isolationist posture focused on the Western Hemisphere, but with an aggressive flavor. He is eager to flex his muscles whenever he sees fit. He is not shy, openly displaying territorial ambitions toward his neighbors, including Canada and Greenland. Trump has made clear his preference for refocusing on the Western Hemisphere as the “backyard” of the U.S. This poses critical questions for the two pillars of the post-WWII U.S.-led order — namely the trans-Atlantic and trans-Pacific alliances. Sen

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